The Reserve Bank this week released the minutes from their most recent board meeting which revealed an upbeat assessment of the national economy. The RBA have speculated that Australia’s economy will start to improve later in the year and that downside risks to a recovery have diminished. The minutes from the RBA suggests that, if necessary, there is scope to cut the official cash rate if there is a further need to stimulate demand.The release of CPI figures on Wednesday, the lowest in ten years, are likely to reinforce the Reserve Bank’s assessment of the economy. Based on the headline figures, consumer prices increased by just 1.5 percent over the year which is well below the Reserve’s target range of between 2 and 3 percent. The RBA’s preferred measure of inflation is underlying inflation, which removes volatile items such as fuel, fruit and vegetables, is much more stubborn, remaining outside the target range at 3.9 percent. Based on the high underlying inflation figure, it is unlikely that official interest rates will fall any further until the core inflation numbers fall within the target range.There are currently 113,000 residential homes for sale across Australia with an estimated market value of just over $40 billion. The total number of properties being advertised for sale around Australia has moderated over the last year, with current market stock about 13 percent lower than the same time last year. Auction clearance rates last week remained robust with Sydney and Melbourne both recording clearances above 80 percent. This week’s feature article provides an overview of auction markets around Australia over the last year, highlighting the improvement in clearance rates particularly in the key auction markets of Sydney and Melbourne. In other news, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) are proposing new national regulations that will impose heavy fines on real estate agents and vendors who consciously mislead buyers. The proposal from the ACCC is largely aimed at stamping out under quoting practices in the industry. RP Data has long been an advocate of transparency in the industry and supports a national framework that will assist in boosting the credibility and consistency of the real estate industry as a whole. Real estate agencies need to be transparent and adopt best practice models such as using Comparative Market Analysis (CMA) reports when setting the listing or reserve price with a vendor. More than 60,000 CMA reports are produced on rpdata.com every month, highlighting the fact that most agents are already engaged in best practice processes.
Each week RP Data collects the most comprehensive set of auction results available in Australia. Thank you to our vast network of real estate professionals who assist us with aggregating these results. The statistics show how many auctions were reported by RP Data as well as the total number of auctions that were scheduled over the last week (due to the large number of auctions we are unable to report 100 percent of the results). ‘Sold‘ properties indicate those properties that were either successfully auctioned on the day, sold before the auction or sold after the auction. Properties ‘Not Sold’ were either passed in at auction or withdrawn.
RP Data monitors advertised properties closely. Each week we update our databases with new properties that have been added to the market. Of course we also update the current stock listed for sale: what is the marketing history, have there been changes to the price or selling method, how long has a particular property been advertised for sale and who is selling it. Want to know what is happening in your local patch? Check out RP Data’s ‘On the Market’ service.Click here or phone 1300 789 303 for a free 2 week trial to find out how you can see what listings are available in your area with On the Market®.
RP DATA
Sunday, July 26, 2009
Monday, July 20, 2009
Save Now, Fix Later
FinanceNick Gardner630 Words20 July 2009Daily Telegraph1 -
State31EnglishCopyright 2009 News Ltd. All Rights Reserved
MORTGAGE borrowers are being urged to stick with variable loans, despite warnings that interest rates could start rising early next year.
Experts say fixed rates have become so expensive they make little sense for all but the most conservative borrowers.
Three-year fixes now cost about 1.5 percentage points more than the average variable rate a margin equivalent to six, quarter-point rate rises.
Aussie Home Loans executive chairman John Symond says it does not make sense to lock into such a high rate today, ``given it will take six rate increases before a variable rate loan would be more expensive''.
``You are better off taking the savings today,'' he says.
Money markets where banks raise funds for lending are pricing in rate increases starting in early 2010, with the cash rate tipped to hit 3.4per cent in 12 months, 0.4percentage points up from today.
But, given that the rate on most variable mortgages is only about 5.5 per cent once you factor in the 0.7 percentage point discount on most loans there is plenty of room to absorb a few rate hikes and still be ahead.
Every economist Your Money contacted thinks the money markets have it wrong, and that rates will stay flat or fall in the next year.
AMP Capital Investors chief economist Shane Oliver says Australia's economy will contract in the June and September quarters, putting it in a technical recession. ``With unemployment still rising and inflation so low, the RBA will find it very difficult not to cut rates when that news comes through,'' he says.
Oliver predicts the cash rate will fall 0.75 percentage points to just 2.25 per cent by the end of this year, to be back near 3per cent in 12 months.
Macquarie interest rate strategist Rory Robertson is less bearish, but does not foresee interest rate rises in the next year.
``The recent economic data has been so good that there is no evidence households need helping right now,'' he says.
National Australia Bank chief economist Alan Oster says it's ``about 50-50 whether rates will stay flat or fall within the next few months''.
Economists and mortgage brokers say if borrowers are too stretched to afford future rate rises or can't sleep because of the uncertainty, fixing part of the loan is a good idea. But they say it is important to have some of the loan on a variable rate to maintain flexibility.
Commsec chief equities economist Craig James says rates may rise next year, ``but it will be a slow journey upwards and probably will only rise by 2per cent from today's
levels by 2012''.
Online Video
How interest rates work: We explain why the Reserve Bank does what it does dailytelegraph.com.au/yourmoney
THE EXPERTS FORECAST...
THE RESERVE BANK'S NEXT MOVE
* Craig James: Cash rate flat for next year and hitting 4 per cent in 2011.
* Shane Oliver: Rate to drop to 2.25 per cent by end of this year and be back to 3 per cent in a year's time, rising very slowly from then on.
* Rory Robertson: Flat for next year, and it won't rise until unemployment starts falling, likely to be in 2011.
* Alan Oster: 50/50 on whether rates will be the same or lower by the end of the year.
State31EnglishCopyright 2009 News Ltd. All Rights Reserved
MORTGAGE borrowers are being urged to stick with variable loans, despite warnings that interest rates could start rising early next year.
Experts say fixed rates have become so expensive they make little sense for all but the most conservative borrowers.
Three-year fixes now cost about 1.5 percentage points more than the average variable rate a margin equivalent to six, quarter-point rate rises.
Aussie Home Loans executive chairman John Symond says it does not make sense to lock into such a high rate today, ``given it will take six rate increases before a variable rate loan would be more expensive''.
``You are better off taking the savings today,'' he says.
Money markets where banks raise funds for lending are pricing in rate increases starting in early 2010, with the cash rate tipped to hit 3.4per cent in 12 months, 0.4percentage points up from today.
But, given that the rate on most variable mortgages is only about 5.5 per cent once you factor in the 0.7 percentage point discount on most loans there is plenty of room to absorb a few rate hikes and still be ahead.
Every economist Your Money contacted thinks the money markets have it wrong, and that rates will stay flat or fall in the next year.
AMP Capital Investors chief economist Shane Oliver says Australia's economy will contract in the June and September quarters, putting it in a technical recession. ``With unemployment still rising and inflation so low, the RBA will find it very difficult not to cut rates when that news comes through,'' he says.
Oliver predicts the cash rate will fall 0.75 percentage points to just 2.25 per cent by the end of this year, to be back near 3per cent in 12 months.
Macquarie interest rate strategist Rory Robertson is less bearish, but does not foresee interest rate rises in the next year.
``The recent economic data has been so good that there is no evidence households need helping right now,'' he says.
National Australia Bank chief economist Alan Oster says it's ``about 50-50 whether rates will stay flat or fall within the next few months''.
Economists and mortgage brokers say if borrowers are too stretched to afford future rate rises or can't sleep because of the uncertainty, fixing part of the loan is a good idea. But they say it is important to have some of the loan on a variable rate to maintain flexibility.
Commsec chief equities economist Craig James says rates may rise next year, ``but it will be a slow journey upwards and probably will only rise by 2per cent from today's
levels by 2012''.
Online Video
How interest rates work: We explain why the Reserve Bank does what it does dailytelegraph.com.au/yourmoney
THE EXPERTS FORECAST...
THE RESERVE BANK'S NEXT MOVE
* Craig James: Cash rate flat for next year and hitting 4 per cent in 2011.
* Shane Oliver: Rate to drop to 2.25 per cent by end of this year and be back to 3 per cent in a year's time, rising very slowly from then on.
* Rory Robertson: Flat for next year, and it won't rise until unemployment starts falling, likely to be in 2011.
* Alan Oster: 50/50 on whether rates will be the same or lower by the end of the year.
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